FI-Sim | Client Flow & Intermediation

Audience: Head of Sales, COO, Business Heads — 26 Mar 2026
Active Clients
510
30 Sovereigns · 180 FIs · 300 Corporates
Daily Trades
~240 – 520
NORMAL 240 → CRISIS 520
Spread Income (YTD)
$5.2B
Non-directional revenue
Hedge Ratio
65–90%
Regime-dependent
Revenue Split
87 / 13
Spread % · Directional %
P&L Decomposition — The Intermediation Signature
Spread income is the dominant, stable revenue source. This is what makes it a bank.
Client Segmentation

Sovereigns

30 clients
Behaviour: Counter-cyclical (stabilise in crisis)
Products: FX spot/forward, reserve management
Key driver: FX reserves vs threshold
MUST intervene when reserves breach threshold

Financial Institutions

180 clients
Behaviour: Liquidity-seeking in stress
Products: Repo, IRS, CDS, FX
Key driver: Funding cost, margin utilisation
FORCED deleveraging when margin > 85%

Corporates

300 clients
Behaviour: Cyclical (issuance in good times, hedging in bad)
Products: Bond issuance, rate hedging, FX hedging
Key driver: Credit spread, interest coverage
FORCED refinancing when maturity wall approaches
Flow by Regime
Activity INCREASES in crisis. This is intermediation.
RegimeClients ActiveTrades/DayNotional ($B)Spread ($M/day)
NORMAL180240489.8
ELEVATED2203105814.2
STRESS2804206822.5
CRISIS3505207733.6
Credit Linkage — The Contagion Chain

Sovereign Downgrade

FX intervention
Reserve drain
Bank flow: UP
→

FI Funding Stress

Hedge / deleverage
Repo demand increases
Bank flow: UP
→

Corporate Issuance Shutdown

Credit facility draws
Issuance drops
Bank flow: mixed
Example: Turkey Downgrade Turkish banks face 200bp funding spike → Turkish corporates shut issuance window → FX reserves depleted → bank intermediates all three legs simultaneously.
Example: COVID Regime HF margin utilisation hits 87% → FORCED selling → bank earns 2.5x crisis spread on flow. Intermediation revenue peaks precisely when markets are most stressed.
Constraint States Dashboard
HF Avg Margin Utilisation
62%
GREEN
<70 Green · 70-85 Amber · >85 Red
Sovereign Reserve Coverage
2.1x
GREEN
Threshold multiple
Corporate Avg Interest Coverage
4.2x
GREEN
>3 Green · 2-3 Amber · <2 Red
Issuance Window
OPEN
GREEN
IG OAS 98bp (threshold 150bp)
Bank Response Metrics
90%
Acceptance Rate — 342 / 380 requests today
Risk Actions Today
2
1 position trim
1 hedge increase
Spread Schedule — Reference Table
ProductIG Spread (bp)HY Spread (bp)CRISIS Multiplier
FX Spot152.5x
IRS0.532.5x
CDS2152.5x
Bond5252.5x
Equity Swap552.5x
Repo252.5x